Bush is sounding like an impotent rock in a tin can, threatening Iran by saying there “must be consequences” for Iran’s “defiance and delay” to demands it stop enriching uranium.

Bush seems to forget that you actually need to hold some cards in your hand if you’re going to bluff. What cards does he hold?

The US is militarily and financially over-extended in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran knows better than to leave its nuclear facilities on the surface for the US to bomb with planes. Any military intervention would likely require “boots on the ground,” and there’s just not lots of boots to go around these days–absent a draft, of course.

The US is also addicted to Iran’s most precious resource–oil. Iran has lots of oil..enough to radically affect world markets if it shut off the spigots, and it knows that fully well. That threat takes the bloom off the rose when it comes to any meaningful economic sanctions.

Finally, Iran is cozy with China and Russia, and that too is likely to blunt the effects of any sanctions.

So what exactly are these consequences Bush is talking about?

Tags: bush, iran, nuclear-proliferation, petroleum