It’s official: housing is a “bust”
With new home sales literally falling off a cliff this month, coming in at a 6.6% monthly drop (much higher than expected and 22% lower than this time last year), economists are finally saying what has been obvious to anyone with half a brain: housing is officially a bust, and a nasty one at that. The stock market is responding accordingly, down over 350 points at the time of this writing.
What’s going on, and why should you care?
Basically, people have stopped buying overpriced houses and have stopped paying their mortgages en masse. Foreclosures are increasing left and right as people become trapped in a falling market with “exotic” (read outrageous) loans they can’t escape, not just subprime borrowers but increasingly creditworthy borrowers too.
People stop buying over priced houses = more property on market = lower prices.
More foreclosures = more property on the market = lower prices.
(Lower prices+more property on market) = (people too scared to buy + people desperate to sell) = Even lower prices.
But there’s a worse consequence of all this, one that could wreck the economy.
All those mortgages people aren’t paying ended up fraudulently packaged as “safe” instruments sold to large hedge funds and banks, which collectively supply the nation’s credit. Now all of a sudden hedge funds are blowing up, and Wall Street is scared shitless that what it thought was safe is in fact worthless.
Scared bankers = less credit and debt they will extend.
Less credit = homeowners with nasty loans can’t refinance = more foreclosures = lower prices.
Less credit = fewer people can obtain mortgages = more property on the market = lower prices.
Less credit = fewer car loans + credit cards + other consumer debt that keeps the economy running.
Less credit = companies can’t merge, do stock buybacks, or do the things they do to keep supplying jobs to you.
In other words, the economy’s lifeblood is suddenly drying up and grinding to a screeching halt.
No economic lifeblood = recession, and whatever that means to you.
Any questions?
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