Based on a series of polls by Constituent Dynamics, Majority Watch is all but declaring a Democratic landslide come November.
MyDD has the analysis:
The new Majority Watch from Constituent Dynamics will be released in a few minutes. Based on 63 polls of 48 districts of 1,000 likely voters each, they will show Democrats currently ahead in the House by 19 seats, 224-205, or the exact, 19-seat margin of the Republican Majority after the 2002 elections. It is also a significant increase from the 219-214 seat lead for Democrats found in the Majority Watch polling from late August and early September.
This 19-seat lead will not even include seven competitive, Republican-held districts that are currently being polled, and six districts that are currently tied. In fact, perhaps most stunningly, the districts with “safe” leads outside the margins of error break 217-198 in favor of Democrats. The previous set of polls actually showed Republicans ahead on safe seats, 205-199. Further, since TX-22 was not polled, that means Democrats already have the magic 218, outside the margin of error, with between 19 and 26 more races in the “toss-up” category. This is a looming landslide.
MyDD also lists the seats held currently by Republicans that in danger of going to the Democrats:
NY-26: Davis (D) 56%–40% Reynolds (R)
OH-15: Kilroy (D) 53%–41% Pryce (R)
NY-24: Arcuri (D) 53%–42% Mieir (R)
OH-18: Space (D) 51%–42% Padgett (R)
PA-07: Sestak (D) 52%–44% Weldon (R)
NM-01: Madrid (R) 52%–44% Wilson (R)
NC-11: Shuler (D) 51%–43% Taylor (R)
NC-08: Kissel (D) 51%–44% Hayes (R)
PA-06: Murphy (D) 52%–46% Gerlach (R)
MN-06: Wetterling (D) 50%–45% Bachmann (R)
IN-02: Donnelly (D) 50%–46% Chocola (R)
AZ-01: Simon (D) 50%–46% Renzi (R)
OH-02: Wulsin (D) 48%–45% Schmidt (R)
FL-13: Jennings (D) 47%–44% Buchannan (R)
WI-08: Kagen (D) 48%–46% Gard (R)
IA-02: Loebsack (D) 48%–47% Leach (R)
This is NOT the time for complacency. The GOP is known for its “get out the vote” effort, using sophisticated databases to target potential Republican voters with laser-like precision even in deeply Democratic neighborhoods.
VOTE!
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