Posts tagged ‘artificial-intelligence’

A roadmap to the 21st century

Here’s a very interesting video on where technology is progressively taking us by 2100. (Turn the volume down, the music is rather annoying).

What’s contained in this video isn’t the dream of some sci-fi junkie. The possibilities depicted are the work of some of the planet’s most respected scientists and thinkers who understand the accelerating trends in artificial intelligence and nanotechnology. Work is already underway to make some of the earlier predictions shown in the video a reality.

One notable omission from the video is how our emerging technology will handle global warming–because if we don’t deal with that problem then all bets are off. But I do believe that we will eventually possess ways of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere so that we can return our planet to its normal pre-industrial state (and there’s a prize out there waiting to be claimed right now by whoever comes up with an initial answer).

Technology roundup, 7-31-06

I don’t know if it’s just that I’ve just been following technology news more closely lately or if it’s some other reason, but recent news of technological advances seems to be spinning further and further into the realm of science fiction. It seems that a clearer picture of what’s coming in the medium and long term is starting to emerge, and the results seem astonishing to me.

Centerblue.org will cover technology news occasionally given the importance of research in maintaining America’s technological edge and standard of living.

Computers/Artificial Intelligence/Robotics:

  • Quantum Leap. Emerging technology in quantum computing will allow a laptop to have more power than trillions of today’s supercomputers. “The age of computing has not even begun,” says one research scientist. “What we have today are tiny toys not much better than an abacus.”
  • Surfing the Web with nothing but brainwaves. Forget keyboards and mice. Soon, perhaps as early as 2012, we will command computers with our thoughts. As if that weren’t enough, communicating with another human being by using thought alone is not far behind (think instant messaging without having to type.) Yea, telepathy. Already it is possible to do things like open email and play Pong using thought alone. You won’t even need an implant to do all of this, but simply wear a cap.
  • Brainy robots start stepping into daily life. Last year, a Pentagon-funded competition succeeded in getting a car to cross over 100 miles of desert with absolutely no human intervention. Next year, a similar competition will attempt to maneuver a car through urban traffic without human help. Additionally, within three years you’ll be able to parallel park a BMW simply by pushing a button.
  • This is a computer on your brain. A new brain-machine interface allows image recognition faster than human consciousness currently allows.
  • MIT researchers watch brain in action. New technology allows scientists to observe the brain in real time as it responds to experiences. Unlocking the keys to the brain’s functionality will accelerate the development of artificial intelligence.
  • Robot destroys lung tumors quickly. “Synchrony” can track and target tumors that move as a result of breathing, allowing targeted bombardment with radiation. It can reduce treatment of lung cancer from dozens of hospital visits to 1-3 sessions.
  • Wine-tasting robot to detect fraudulent bottles. A new robot will be able to verify that the wine in a bottle matches its label.

Biotechnology

  • Building Artificial Viruses. We now have the capability to create artificial viruses using information readily available on the Internet. Yes, it is now possible to create life out of non-life. While the technology has great potential for everything from creating vaccines to cleaning up the environment, it also potentially very dangerous. Terrorist groups could design super-killer microbes in a matter of days and unleash them on unsuspecting populations. It makes the recently written-about biodefense facility being built by the US all that much more relevant.
  • Carbon nanotubes you can live with. Carbon nanotubes have been made bio-compatible, whereas before they were toxic to cells. This advancement opens the possibility of a machine/biology interface at the cellular level.
  • Researchers transform stem cells found in human fat into smooth muscle cells. They could eventually be used to repair tissue in blood vessels, intestines, and the urinary tract.

The intersection of politics and technology

It is an unfortunate fact of life that politics and technology are often intertwined. While the scientific ideal may be that research and scientific breakthroughs should be allowed to occur unfettered by political considerations, the truth is that a lot of what is happening in the scientific community today is pushing up against the comfort zones of some religious conservatives, which immediately makes it a political issue.

Two widely known examples are stem cell research and cloning. Both of these technologies offer a huge amount of promise in curing problems that afflict the human condition, but some aspects of the technology currently rely on embryos. That puts the technology in the cross-hairs of the Religious Right, since in their view the use of embryos in such a manner is akin to murder. Never mind that the embryos being used were headed for a dumpster behind a fertility clinic anyway; they must think it better to stand on principle and let humanity suffer from ailments like paralysis or organ damage rather than use embryos that were destined for disposal anyway. Thankfully, most Americans don’t see the issue this way.

This is not all to say that emerging trends in science should not be subjected to an examination of its ethics. Writers and technologists like Ray Kurzweil predict an imminent acceleration of science in nanotechnology, biotechnology, and robotics that in just a few decades will fundamentally alter the very definition of what it means to be human. As described in his book, “The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology,” we are headed towards of a future of sentient computers, ever-lasting life, a clean environment, and a merging of humans with machines. Such a future is both exciting and frightening, but undoubtedly fraught with much ethical peril. Kurzweil himself admits that these emerging technologies could also be used to extinguish all life on the planet far more efficiently than anything available today.

The ethical question to ask, then, is what we should do with such dangerous technology–and whether its benefits outweigh its potential dangers. That’s a different question from asking whether the technology offends the religious sensibilities of some people, especially over as unanswerable a question as whether life begins at birth or at conception.

Bill Joy, the founder of Sun Microsystems, has nightmares about Kurzweil’s future, which caused him to write his seminal article in Wired titled “Why The Future Doesn’t Need Us.” He examined the probable end result of emerging technology and concluded that it is so dangerous that humanity should relinquish it:

These possibilities are all thus either undesirable or unachievable or both. The only realistic alternative I see is relinquishment: to limit development of the technologies that are too dangerous, by limiting our pursuit of certain kinds of knowledge…The new Pandora’s boxes of genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics are almost open, yet we seem hardly to have noticed. Ideas can’t be put back in a box; unlike uranium or plutonium, they don’t need to be mined and refined, and they can be freely copied. Once they are out, they are out. Churchill remarked, in a famous left-handed compliment, that the American people and their leaders “invariably do the right thing, after they have examined every other alternative.” In this case, however, we must act more presciently, as to do the right thing only at last may be to lose the chance to do it at all.

Relinquishment may or may not be a pipe dream–has humanity ever NOT researched a potential area of study? But at least Joy and people like him are asking the right questions: what are the implications of the technology for the human race and the planetary environment? Will the problems caused outweigh the potential benefits? Does the fact that industry rather than government will have control of these new technologies (unlike nuclear weapons) give greater cause for concern? Will we increase the divide between the “haves” and “have nots” because of the expense of adopting new technology?

Politicians are not competent to answer these questions, especially those driven by the religious beliefs of a few. They generally lack the background in philosophy, ethics, and technology required. Even if they attempt to control the technology’s development they are bound to fail and only end up harming their own constituencies. The only result of Bush’s ban on use of government funding on stem cell research using human embryos is that the United States is falling behind the curve compared to other nations who are continuing their research. Thankfully, privately funded efforts like the new Harvard Stem Cell Institute are filling some of the gap, but it is shameful that our government is not fully behind this important research.

The job of politicians is to understand the profound impact that new technology has on improving the economy and enhancing our standard of living, and to promote the education needed to maintain our technological edge in these fields. They should also implement safeguards against the known dangers of new technology, such as the FDA’s proposed regulation of nanotechnology materials. It is not their job to engage in grandstanding and adopt moral principles based on religious values not shared by all. Scientific communities like the Harvard Stem Cell Institute and the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence are well aware of the ethical and philosophical implications of their work and are best suited to bringing the necessary experts together to devise ethical guidelines for other researchers to follow. A general consensus on the part of our citizens is also important–a solid majority of people approve of stem cell research, for example.

I’ll be writing about new advances in technology in this otherwise mostly-political blog, because I’m a strong believer in the power of technology to improve the human condition, the environment, and our economy. The rise of global competition makes it more important than ever that the US maintain its creative edge and scientific prowess. As such it is imperative that we understand what’s going on in scientific circles and pressure our politicians to facilitate rather than block these wonderful new technologies in a responsible manner, guarding the safety of humans and the environment with the minimum amount of regulation possible.