Centerblue.org

As Bush heads into his State of the Union speech tonight he faces a variety of humiliating poll numbers.

A CNN poll shows a seething electorate, with 61% saying the country is going in the wrong direction. 64% say Bush is a divider not a uniter, and 55% call his presidency an absolute failure. 51% trust Bush less than Clinton, and rather amusingly 67% say Bush has done something to piss them off since he took office.

The Washington Post points out that only twice in the last 60 years has a president given his State of the Union speech while in a position weaker than where Bush finds himself today: Truman during the Korean War in 1952, and Nixon during Watergate. Its poll reveals that 51% strongly disapprove of Bush’s performance, and solid majorities of Americans say Bush cannot be trusted in a crisis, has not made the country safer, and should withdraw troops from Iraq rather than add to them. 65% percent oppose the troop increase, and a huge 71% say the country is seriously off-track.

The heavy judgment of history is starting to weigh like a yoke on Bush during his remaining time in office, and it’s not looking pretty.

A new poll shows that a whopping 70% of Americans now disapprove of Bush’s handling of Iraq. 61% say the war was not worth fighting. The latest numbers mark a notable deterioration since October. The fact that the Iraq Study Group called Iraq a problem that is “grave and deteriorating” surely didn’t help. Predictably, Iraq is acting like an anchor on Bush’s approval ratings, with only 36% of the public approving generally of his performance, while 62% disapprove.

I wish that all these people who are now waking up and disapproving of Bush’s incompetence had been paying more attention during the 2004 election. The seeds of the current morass were evident even back then–from Abu Ghraib to beheadings to a rising insurgency to the mounting death toll–all signs that Bush’s unilateral Iraq adventure was destined to be a monumental failure.

We Kerry backers hate to say we told you so, but we told you so.

Charlie Cook has an interesting and thorough analysis of the latest NBC/WSJ poll, and compares the numbers to the ones faced by Democrats before the last “wave” election of 1994, in which they lost both Houses of Congress.

On four out of five key indicators of how voters will vote in Congressional elections the GOP is faring substantially worse now than the Democrats did in 1994, and is faring only marginally better on the fifth. Here’s how the numbers ran down:

Question                                 1994             2006

Country headed in right            39%/48%      26%/61%
direction, wrong direction

Presidential job approval,          48%/43%      38%/57%
disapproval rating

Approval, Disapproval of           24%/67%      16%/75%
Congress

Generic congressional ballot      44% GOP/      52% Dem/
preference–”GOP” vs. “Dem”    38% Dem       37% GOP

Your incumbent deserves,        39%/49%       39%/45%
doesn’t deserve re-election

The GOP is just about out of time to turn this shipwreck around.

Based on a series of polls by Constituent Dynamics, Majority Watch is all but declaring a Democratic landslide come November.

MyDD has the analysis:

The new Majority Watch from Constituent Dynamics will be released in a few minutes. Based on 63 polls of 48 districts of 1,000 likely voters each, they will show Democrats currently ahead in the House by 19 seats, 224-205, or the exact, 19-seat margin of the Republican Majority after the 2002 elections. It is also a significant increase from the 219-214 seat lead for Democrats found in the Majority Watch polling from late August and early September.

This 19-seat lead will not even include seven competitive, Republican-held districts that are currently being polled, and six districts that are currently tied. In fact, perhaps most stunningly, the districts with “safe” leads outside the margins of error break 217-198 in favor of Democrats. The previous set of polls actually showed Republicans ahead on safe seats, 205-199. Further, since TX-22 was not polled, that means Democrats already have the magic 218, outside the margin of error, with between 19 and 26 more races in the “toss-up” category. This is a looming landslide.

MyDD also lists the seats held currently by Republicans that in danger of going to the Democrats:

NY-26: Davis (D) 56%–40% Reynolds (R)
OH-15: Kilroy (D) 53%–41% Pryce (R)
NY-24: Arcuri (D) 53%–42% Mieir (R)
OH-18: Space (D) 51%–42% Padgett (R)
PA-07: Sestak (D) 52%–44% Weldon (R)
NM-01: Madrid (R) 52%–44% Wilson (R)
NC-11: Shuler (D) 51%–43% Taylor (R)
NC-08: Kissel (D) 51%–44% Hayes (R)
PA-06: Murphy (D) 52%–46% Gerlach (R)
MN-06: Wetterling (D) 50%–45% Bachmann (R)
IN-02: Donnelly (D) 50%–46% Chocola (R)
AZ-01: Simon (D) 50%–46% Renzi (R)
OH-02: Wulsin (D) 48%–45% Schmidt (R)
FL-13: Jennings (D) 47%–44% Buchannan (R)
WI-08: Kagen (D) 48%–46% Gard (R)
IA-02: Loebsack (D) 48%–47% Leach (R)

This is NOT the time for complacency. The GOP is known for its “get out the vote” effort, using sophisticated databases to target potential Republican voters with laser-like precision even in deeply Democratic neighborhoods.

VOTE!

Every so often it seems that events conspire to drive a majority party from power. The most recent example was 1994, when a litany of woes joined together to kick the Democrats out of Congress–the healthcare debate, gays in the military, a federal money-laundering investigation.

Now it’s 2006, and it’s happening again. Absolutely nothing is breaking the GOP’s way:

• The Iraq war has been cemented in people’s minds as an absolute disaster of Bush’s incompetence, with many inputs from Bob Woodward’s book to the National Intelligence Estimate to generals testifying before Congress all honing the same message.
• The American public gets that the Iraq war has nothing to do with terrorism, except to worsen it by virtue of our own actions there.
• In the wake of 13 US soldiers being killed in 3 days, on top of thousands already killed, Bush comes out saying that the Iraq violence against our soldiers and each other will be nothing but a “comma” in the history books.
• We have been subjected to an unseemly debate on torture in which even Colin Powell has weighed in to oppose the barbaric approach of the Bush administration, a debate that most Americans understand shocks the conscience and tarnishes our values.
• Democrats are embracing the national security debate instead of avoiding it as they did in 2002 and 2004.
• The Dubai ports deal made Republicans look weak on keeping the nation’s ports safe.
• The weakness of the US position in foreign affairs as a result of the Iraq war is painfully obvious in our complete inability to limit Iran’s nuclear weapons development or prevent North Korea from testing a nuclear bomb, forcing us to resort to idle saber-rattling.
• The immigration debate pitted Bush against conservatives in Congress.
• The national debt and trade deficits are reaching stratospheric levels.
• The absolute bungling of Hurricane Katrina.
• Terry Schiavo.
• Harriet Miers.
• Opposition to life-saving stem cell research.
• Charles Schumer and Rahm Emanuel have emerged as effective generals of the Democratic rank-and-file, energizing campaigns and keeping the party on message.
• While the Dow reaches record highs on the basis of record corporate profits, people are watching their homes and real estate investments deflate like a dead balloon, job cuts are on the rise, employment figures are lukewarm, gasoline prices are volatile, and uncertainty about the future is high.
• And, of course, now there is the Foley-gate scandal that makes hypocrites out of the so-called party of family values.

This litany of trouble has the Republicans ready to concede a third of the fifteen seats Democrats need to take control of the House. The Senate was being pronounced as within reach of the Democrats even before the Foley scandal exploded (though it’s still an uphill battle). Races that were leaning Republican are now essentially tied as Democrats tie in the GOP leadership’s handling of the Foley matter to its “culture of corruption” theme. Bush’s bully pulpit has been rendered useless against the din surrounding the Foley scandal as he ineffectually tries to bring the conversation back to national security.

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows that recent events including the scandal have people less willing to see Republicans continue their control in Congress, by 41% to 18%. They favored Democratic control by 34% to 23%.

Even conservative commentators seem willing to throw in the towel and declare a Democratic victory. George Will says that the Dems should go into another line of work if they can’t win control of the House in November.

It’s too soon to count the GOP down and out, but time is ticking. Karl Rove has shown his masterful brilliance in energizing the conservative base and ensuring victory for the GOP–but his hands must be very full with this election.

Much of America and the rest of the world now wait for November with baited breath to see if we have the courage to break Republican hegemony, restore our place in the community of nations, and renounce the fascist agenda that has invaded Washington in recent years.

Despite the threat of sectarian bloodshed, strong majorities of Iraqis polled say that the US should pick up and get out immediately.

Recently completed polls show that between 65% and 71% of Iraqis favor immediate withdrawal. Although they fear sectarian violence, that fear is outweighed by anger of and hatred towards American soldiers–who Iraqis say have done little to nothing to prevent violence, establish authority, and rebuild essential infrastructure.

Can you really blame them? Nobody wants to live in a country occupied by a foreign power, especially one so utterly unable to secure the peace.

If the Iraqis don’t want us there, if the Iraq occupation is a “cause celebre” for jihadists that is greatly worsening terrorism rather than lessening it, then why do we remain?

When “staying the course” means running the ship into an iceberg and causing it to sink, it is time to drastically change course.

A new CNN/USA Today poll shows that the electorate is in a very nasty mood.

• 76% said there was “something” to be angry about in the country.
• 54% said that things in the country were going “pretty” or “very” badly.
• 56% believe the economy is “poor” or “very poor.”
• 55% said they are more likely to back a challenger in the November elections. That anti-incumbent sentiment is higher than the 48% registered in 1994, the year the GOP took Congress.
• Democrats led Republicans by 10 percentage points, 53% to 43%, among likely voters asked which party they would support in November.
• 56% said they considered the Democrats the party of change.

There’s an icy wind blowing out there for Republicans.

A new Associated Press-Ipsos poll showed Bush’s approval rating plumbing new depths, with only 33% approving of his performance while 57% disapprove. The same poll found that 19% of people who had backed Bush in 2004 plan to vote for a Democrat in the November congressional election.

Until now, Republicans faced with dismal poll numbers have consoled themselves by saying that elections are ultimately local not national affairs, and that people are more likely to vote for their own Republican incumbent despite displeasure with Congress in general come November.

A new poll refutes that assumption and shows that House incumbents (of both parties, but primarily of Republicans) are at risk. It showed that only 55% now approve of their own lawmaker, a 7-point drop in three months and the lowest number since 1994–the last time the House changed parties. The plunge was called “dramatic” by a Republican consultant. 53% see themselves as anti-incumbent generally and 29% as not, again almost the same as 1994.

Democrats also find challenges in the poll, the highest of which being there is a general sense that people don’t know what the party stands for; 48% say Dems have a clear plan, 47% say they do not. The poll suggests that Democrats have to hammer home their clear disagreement with Bush on Iraq, even if they don’t agree on the alternative–38% said they would oppose a candidate who supported the Iraq war. The question of “staying the course” versus a change (or a “cut and run” as the spinmeister Rove-ites prefer to call it) seems settled, as voters clearly want a change.

Despite their challenges, Democrats clearly had advantages in the poll. 52% said they want Democrats in power generally, vs. 39% said Republicans; that narrows to a ten point lead for those following their local races closely.

There’s not much for Republicans to cheer about in this poll (Bush did receive a slight bounce two-point bounce, to 40% approval), and Democrats have to take the message to heart. We need a clear, concise short bullet-pointed list of what Democrats plan to do if they take power in November. Steps like the American Dream Initiative and uniting behind the idea of beginning an Iraq withdrawal are good but not enough. Above all, though, just keep hammering the message home: “Had Enough? Vote Democratic!”

A new AP-Ipsos poll says that, less than four months until the November elections, Americans hold the GOP Congress in low regard and prefer to return the Democrats to power by a 3 to 1 margin. The issue is complicated for the GOP because solid blocs of moderate and even conservative voters intend to vote Democratic. The numbers:

*Bush’s approval rating remains at 36%.

*51% of registered voters said they would vote for their Democratic candidate, versus 40% for the Republican.

*81% of liberals, 56% of moderates, and a surprisingly high 24% of conservatives vowed to vote Democratic.

*Among unpersuaded voters, 51% leaned Democratic vs. 41% Republican.

*Only 36% of conservatives approved of the job Congress is doing.

*The GOP held narrow advantages on foreign policy/terrorism (43% vs 33%) and Iraq (36% vs 32%).

*By comparison to 1994, back then the two parties were in a dead heat as to who was favored to keep Congress.

Americans are ready for change from the spend-and-borrow ways of the last six years. This election is for Democrats’ to lose. Americans are receptive–now we just need to nail the message home.