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Here’s a very interesting video on where technology is progressively taking us by 2100. (Turn the volume down, the music is rather annoying).

What’s contained in this video isn’t the dream of some sci-fi junkie. The possibilities depicted are the work of some of the planet’s most respected scientists and thinkers who understand the accelerating trends in artificial intelligence and nanotechnology. Work is already underway to make some of the earlier predictions shown in the video a reality.

One notable omission from the video is how our emerging technology will handle global warming–because if we don’t deal with that problem then all bets are off. But I do believe that we will eventually possess ways of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere so that we can return our planet to its normal pre-industrial state (and there’s a prize out there waiting to be claimed right now by whoever comes up with an initial answer).

A monthly roundup of technological breakthroughs in energy, computing, nanotechnology, and biotechnology–and how these converging technologies are transforming our society, solving problems, and creating new ones.

Let’s round up evil-doers before they commit crimes: (computing, ethics) I’m sure my friend Boztopia will “love” this one. A team of neuroscientists has come up with a powerful technique that can scan deep inside a person’s mind and read his intentions before he acts, “Minority Report” style. It raises some serious ethical questions about how and whether this device should be used in interrogations and police work. That tearing sound you hear is that of the Bill of Rights enduring further shredding.

If you live 20 more years, you may get to live forever: (biotechnology) Research into senescence continues to gather speed, as more scientists come to view old age as a curable disease rather than as an inevitability. Researchers like Dr. John Langmore are looking at telomeres in the DNA code, which become damaged as cells keep replicating over time and cause eventual degeneration–in the same way that making copies of copies of copies of a piece of paper eventually results in a mess. Understanding how this works could lead the way to stopping and reversing the aging process.

World’s first “bionic woman:” (robotics) US Marine Claudia Mitchell is the world’s first person to have a prosthetic arm she can control through thought alone. It can do things like cutting up food, and she can feel touch when something touches her artificial hand.

Let’s suck carbon dioxide out of the air: (environment) Bowing to the inevitable fact that we are not likely to reduce carbon emissions enough in time to prevent a climate disaster, Al Gore and Virgin Group boss Sir Richard Branson have announced a $25 million “Earth Challenge” Prize to be awarded to whoever comes up with a workable method of permanently removing at least one billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere per year. There are already ways to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, such as this contraption that looks like a goal post devised by a Columbia U. researcher, but such devices still lack a way of cheaply and permanently sequestering the carbon they capture.

Robots (may) have feelings too: (robotics) Astonishingly, researchers are working on giving robots emotions and feelings that may be seen in mainstream robots within ten years. They are getting their robots to react to stimuli with emotions like happiness and fear, or to spontaneously feel “hunger” as a way of telling them they need to recharge their batteries. If they can be taught feelings, can ethics follow? Let’s hope so.

Creating the Jordi LaForge visor: (computing) Jordi was the blind Chief Engineer on the Enterprise-D who wore a visor to help him see. A new implant puts receptors in some blind patients’ eyes that is interpreted by a computer and then sent to the user’s brain as signals he can understand. The device won’t equate to full sight, but would allow totally blind patients to see imagery and navigate about. However future versions should allow more sight, including recognizing someone’s face.

The computer that won’t work if you look at it:(computing) Well that’s a bit of an overstatement, but a start-up called D-Wave claims it has demo-ed the world’s first quantum computer. The computer relies on the state of quantum qubits rather than on binary 0’s and 1’s, and could be used to solve certain thorny problems in just a few seconds that would take regular computers eons. Hype or real? Who knows, but we’ll find out soon enough as the company makes its increasingly powerful computer available to corporations for research.

A 2012 laptop’s speed = 1997’s world’s fastest supercomputer: (computing) Intel recently demonstrated a new 80-core teraflop chip that will be widely available on computers within 5 years, and whose power is greater than the most powerful supercomputer on Earth just ten years ago. It will also only consume 62 watts of power, less than what a single processor consumes today.

2006 was a remarkable year in the realm of science, as the law of accelerating technological returns continued apace at an increasing speed. From the advancement of brain-machine interfaces to using stem cells to cure blindness, humanity made astounding leaps in its use of technology to better understand and manipulate the world around it. This technology also forms an essential foundation for tackling the tremendous problems posed by increasing energy scarcity and global climate change.

I list here what I consider the top achievements for the year.

Robotics/Artificial Intelligence

1) Researchers demonstrate direct brain control over robot. Scientists have developed a method for allowing the control of a robot using thought control. The possibilities of this technology are immense–ranging from guiding machines in combat to providing direction to a planetary rover on Mars.

2) Researchers unveil self-aware robot. They created a four-legged machine but did not give it instructions on how to move. It had to learn that it was four-legged by trial and error, and by testing hypotheses. It eventually developed a sense of “self” that allowed it to strategize on how to move correctly, and later how to adapt as a result of an “injury” to one of its legs. This differs from previous robots that have had to be programmed to do specific tasks, without an ability to adapt. In so doing, this robot behaves more in line with a “conscious” animal like a cat.

Biotechnology

1) Pill made from red wine compound extends life of fat unhealthy mice. Obesity is a major problem in our society and a major cause of disease and premature death. Scientists have discovered that giving obese mice a pill made out of high doses of resveratrol, a compound found in red wine, eliminates the problems of obesity (fatty organs, insulin levels, etc.) even though the mice didn’t lose the weight. It also reversed the contributions of a bad diet on things like heart disease, cancer, etc. These mice went on to live as long as healthy ones, and research is underway to see if healthy mice given the compound will have their lives extended even longer.

2) Stem cells to be used to cure blindness. Scientists are using stem cells to restore retinal cells lost due to degenerative eye diseases, and have successfully restored vision to blind mice using this approach.

3) Brain-machine interfaces took drastic leaps forward in 2006. Several advances were seen this year on this front. In one study, a paralyzed patient became able to control his wheelchair by thought alone. Other scientists are developing a brain chip that can process muscle control commands and deliver them directly to paralyzed limbs, bypassing the source of paralysis.

4) Human bladders are grown in a lab and implanted in patients. Eventually scientists will be able to grow any organ using a patient’s own cells and then implant it to replace a diseased one, completely eliminating any tissue rejection issues.

5) Robotic worm can move through intestines. Scientists have developed a “worm” that can move through human intestines. It may someday contain cameras that can penetrate far deeper than today’s colonoscopies.

Nanotechnology

1) Nanowires generate electricity from body movement. Scientists have developed inexpensive nanowires that can harness our movement to provide energy to power machines. Anything from walking to breathing to the movement of our blood will eventually be able to provide energy to everything from IPOD’s to nanobots roaming inside our bodies. In a related development, nanowires have also been developed that convert light to electricity.

2) Polymer nanospheres target and destroy cancer cells. Researchers have developed particles that can target cancer cells and prevent them from spreading by slowly releasing drugs. This will greatly reduce the damage caused by conventional chemotherapy. This is part of a greater emerging movement in medicine that uses nanoparticles to specifically target and destroy disease at its source inside the body.

3) Semi-conducting nanowire transistors to make tiny computers and sensors possible. Scientists have developed a way to mass produce nanowire transistors that are much smaller and more efficient than existing ones. This will eventually make possible everything from tiny computers to ultra-sensitive sensors that can pick up the presence of hundreds of cancer markers and pathogens–in as little as five years from now.

4) Nano-membrane provides cheap drinkable water from the oceans. At a time when glaciers that provide life-giving water are disappearing at an alarming rate, with farmlands threatened by climate change all over the world, and with aquifers quickly being drained to nothing, our civilization needs a water solution fast and it needs it now. Nanotechnology provides the way, as scientists have developed a nano-membrane that reduces the cost of saltwater desalination by 75%. This will eventually lead to the creation of desalination plants that can efficiently create fresh water from the oceans. In a related development, nano-magnets have been created that can purify contaminated water.

Energy

1) Scientists design life forms to create ethanol from wood chips and agricultural waste. Ethanol provides an answer to our dangerous petroleum dependency, but using corn/soybeans/sugar/etc. for it causes competition between food and fuel. A much better answer is to use cellulosic agricultural waste and wood chips to create ethanol, but the means didn’t exist to do that until now. Scientists have developed organisms that metabolize these products and turn them into ethanol. This holds great promise as a new energy source in the future, and a cellulosic ethanol plant is already under construction. As an added bonus, ethanol contributes very little to global warming (since the amount of carbon spewed is roughly equal to the amount consumed by the plants themselves.)

2) Plug-in automobile hybrids are here. These hybrid automobiles allow you to plug them into a wall outlet, which will recharge their newer better batteries and allow more of their energy to come from electricity and less from fuel. This can be done with minimal construction of new plants by taking full advantage of plants’ peak capacities, rather than letting them stand idle during times when not everyone is running their air conditioners at full blast. Additionally, these cars will eventually serve to stabilize the power grid by providing excess power during times of emergency and by allowing users to sell power back to the grid when it’s unneeded.

3) Cheap super-efficient solar power is (almost) here. From drastically increasing the efficiency of solar cells, to being able to concentrate sunlight for increased performance, to more cheaply mass-producing solar cells, solar power is now close to being cost-competitive with fossil fuels. I hope to see the day soon when any household can put solar panels on its roof and not rely on the fossil fuel power grid for its needs.

Physics

1) Cloaking device becomes a reality. The pesky cloaking devices used by Romulans and Klingons that were such a pain to the Star Trek Enterprise crew may eventually become a reality. A cloaking device has been created that makes an object invisible–but only in the microwave frequency range for now (not in the visible light range). The problem with creating such a device for the visible light range is that it would have to be built at the nanoscale level due to the smaller frequency of light and that’s beyond the current capabilities of nanotechnology–for now.

I don’t know if it’s just that I’ve just been following technology news more closely lately or if it’s some other reason, but recent news of technological advances seems to be spinning further and further into the realm of science fiction. It seems that a clearer picture of what’s coming in the medium and long term is starting to emerge, and the results seem astonishing to me.

Centerblue.org will cover technology news occasionally given the importance of research in maintaining America’s technological edge and standard of living.

Computers/Artificial Intelligence/Robotics:

• Quantum Leap. Emerging technology in quantum computing will allow a laptop to have more power than trillions of today’s supercomputers. “The age of computing has not even begun,” says one research scientist. “What we have today are tiny toys not much better than an abacus.”
• Surfing the Web with nothing but brainwaves. Forget keyboards and mice. Soon, perhaps as early as 2012, we will command computers with our thoughts. As if that weren’t enough, communicating with another human being by using thought alone is not far behind (think instant messaging without having to type.) Yea, telepathy. Already it is possible to do things like open email and play Pong using thought alone. You won’t even need an implant to do all of this, but simply wear a cap.
• Brainy robots start stepping into daily life. Last year, a Pentagon-funded competition succeeded in getting a car to cross over 100 miles of desert with absolutely no human intervention. Next year, a similar competition will attempt to maneuver a car through urban traffic without human help. Additionally, within three years you’ll be able to parallel park a BMW simply by pushing a button.
• This is a computer on your brain. A new brain-machine interface allows image recognition faster than human consciousness currently allows.
• MIT researchers watch brain in action. New technology allows scientists to observe the brain in real time as it responds to experiences. Unlocking the keys to the brain’s functionality will accelerate the development of artificial intelligence.
• Robot destroys lung tumors quickly. “Synchrony” can track and target tumors that move as a result of breathing, allowing targeted bombardment with radiation. It can reduce treatment of lung cancer from dozens of hospital visits to 1-3 sessions.
• Wine-tasting robot to detect fraudulent bottles. A new robot will be able to verify that the wine in a bottle matches its label.

Biotechnology

• Building Artificial Viruses. We now have the capability to create artificial viruses using information readily available on the Internet. Yes, it is now possible to create life out of non-life. While the technology has great potential for everything from creating vaccines to cleaning up the environment, it also potentially very dangerous. Terrorist groups could design super-killer microbes in a matter of days and unleash them on unsuspecting populations. It makes the recently written-about biodefense facility being built by the US all that much more relevant.
• Carbon nanotubes you can live with. Carbon nanotubes have been made bio-compatible, whereas before they were toxic to cells. This advancement opens the possibility of a machine/biology interface at the cellular level.
• Researchers transform stem cells found in human fat into smooth muscle cells. They could eventually be used to repair tissue in blood vessels, intestines, and the urinary tract.

It is an unfortunate fact of life that politics and technology are often intertwined. While the scientific ideal may be that research and scientific breakthroughs should be allowed to occur unfettered by political considerations, the truth is that a lot of what is happening in the scientific community today is pushing up against the comfort zones of some religious conservatives, which immediately makes it a political issue.

Two widely known examples are stem cell research and cloning. Both of these technologies offer a huge amount of promise in curing problems that afflict the human condition, but some aspects of the technology currently rely on embryos. That puts the technology in the cross-hairs of the Religious Right, since in their view the use of embryos in such a manner is akin to murder. Never mind that the embryos being used were headed for a dumpster behind a fertility clinic anyway; they must think it better to stand on principle and let humanity suffer from ailments like paralysis or organ damage rather than use embryos that were destined for disposal anyway. Thankfully, most Americans don’t see the issue this way.

This is not all to say that emerging trends in science should not be subjected to an examination of its ethics. Writers and technologists like Ray Kurzweil predict an imminent acceleration of science in nanotechnology, biotechnology, and robotics that in just a few decades will fundamentally alter the very definition of what it means to be human. As described in his book, “The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology,” we are headed towards of a future of sentient computers, ever-lasting life, a clean environment, and a merging of humans with machines. Such a future is both exciting and frightening, but undoubtedly fraught with much ethical peril. Kurzweil himself admits that these emerging technologies could also be used to extinguish all life on the planet far more efficiently than anything available today.

The ethical question to ask, then, is what we should do with such dangerous technology–and whether its benefits outweigh its potential dangers. That’s a different question from asking whether the technology offends the religious sensibilities of some people, especially over as unanswerable a question as whether life begins at birth or at conception.

Bill Joy, the founder of Sun Microsystems, has nightmares about Kurzweil’s future, which caused him to write his seminal article in Wired titled “Why The Future Doesn’t Need Us.” He examined the probable end result of emerging technology and concluded that it is so dangerous that humanity should relinquish it:

These possibilities are all thus either undesirable or unachievable or both. The only realistic alternative I see is relinquishment: to limit development of the technologies that are too dangerous, by limiting our pursuit of certain kinds of knowledge…The new Pandora’s boxes of genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics are almost open, yet we seem hardly to have noticed. Ideas can’t be put back in a box; unlike uranium or plutonium, they don’t need to be mined and refined, and they can be freely copied. Once they are out, they are out. Churchill remarked, in a famous left-handed compliment, that the American people and their leaders “invariably do the right thing, after they have examined every other alternative.” In this case, however, we must act more presciently, as to do the right thing only at last may be to lose the chance to do it at all.

Relinquishment may or may not be a pipe dream–has humanity ever NOT researched a potential area of study? But at least Joy and people like him are asking the right questions: what are the implications of the technology for the human race and the planetary environment? Will the problems caused outweigh the potential benefits? Does the fact that industry rather than government will have control of these new technologies (unlike nuclear weapons) give greater cause for concern? Will we increase the divide between the “haves” and “have nots” because of the expense of adopting new technology?

Politicians are not competent to answer these questions, especially those driven by the religious beliefs of a few. They generally lack the background in philosophy, ethics, and technology required. Even if they attempt to control the technology’s development they are bound to fail and only end up harming their own constituencies. The only result of Bush’s ban on use of government funding on stem cell research using human embryos is that the United States is falling behind the curve compared to other nations who are continuing their research. Thankfully, privately funded efforts like the new Harvard Stem Cell Institute are filling some of the gap, but it is shameful that our government is not fully behind this important research.

The job of politicians is to understand the profound impact that new technology has on improving the economy and enhancing our standard of living, and to promote the education needed to maintain our technological edge in these fields. They should also implement safeguards against the known dangers of new technology, such as the FDA’s proposed regulation of nanotechnology materials. It is not their job to engage in grandstanding and adopt moral principles based on religious values not shared by all. Scientific communities like the Harvard Stem Cell Institute and the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence are well aware of the ethical and philosophical implications of their work and are best suited to bringing the necessary experts together to devise ethical guidelines for other researchers to follow. A general consensus on the part of our citizens is also important–a solid majority of people approve of stem cell research, for example.

I’ll be writing about new advances in technology in this otherwise mostly-political blog, because I’m a strong believer in the power of technology to improve the human condition, the environment, and our economy. The rise of global competition makes it more important than ever that the US maintain its creative edge and scientific prowess. As such it is imperative that we understand what’s going on in scientific circles and pressure our politicians to facilitate rather than block these wonderful new technologies in a responsible manner, guarding the safety of humans and the environment with the minimum amount of regulation possible.