Centerblue.org

Every so often it seems that events conspire to drive a majority party from power. The most recent example was 1994, when a litany of woes joined together to kick the Democrats out of Congress–the healthcare debate, gays in the military, a federal money-laundering investigation.

Now it’s 2006, and it’s happening again. Absolutely nothing is breaking the GOP’s way:

• The Iraq war has been cemented in people’s minds as an absolute disaster of Bush’s incompetence, with many inputs from Bob Woodward’s book to the National Intelligence Estimate to generals testifying before Congress all honing the same message.
• The American public gets that the Iraq war has nothing to do with terrorism, except to worsen it by virtue of our own actions there.
• In the wake of 13 US soldiers being killed in 3 days, on top of thousands already killed, Bush comes out saying that the Iraq violence against our soldiers and each other will be nothing but a “comma” in the history books.
• We have been subjected to an unseemly debate on torture in which even Colin Powell has weighed in to oppose the barbaric approach of the Bush administration, a debate that most Americans understand shocks the conscience and tarnishes our values.
• Democrats are embracing the national security debate instead of avoiding it as they did in 2002 and 2004.
• The Dubai ports deal made Republicans look weak on keeping the nation’s ports safe.
• The weakness of the US position in foreign affairs as a result of the Iraq war is painfully obvious in our complete inability to limit Iran’s nuclear weapons development or prevent North Korea from testing a nuclear bomb, forcing us to resort to idle saber-rattling.
• The immigration debate pitted Bush against conservatives in Congress.
• The national debt and trade deficits are reaching stratospheric levels.
• The absolute bungling of Hurricane Katrina.
• Terry Schiavo.
• Harriet Miers.
• Opposition to life-saving stem cell research.
• Charles Schumer and Rahm Emanuel have emerged as effective generals of the Democratic rank-and-file, energizing campaigns and keeping the party on message.
• While the Dow reaches record highs on the basis of record corporate profits, people are watching their homes and real estate investments deflate like a dead balloon, job cuts are on the rise, employment figures are lukewarm, gasoline prices are volatile, and uncertainty about the future is high.
• And, of course, now there is the Foley-gate scandal that makes hypocrites out of the so-called party of family values.

This litany of trouble has the Republicans ready to concede a third of the fifteen seats Democrats need to take control of the House. The Senate was being pronounced as within reach of the Democrats even before the Foley scandal exploded (though it’s still an uphill battle). Races that were leaning Republican are now essentially tied as Democrats tie in the GOP leadership’s handling of the Foley matter to its “culture of corruption” theme. Bush’s bully pulpit has been rendered useless against the din surrounding the Foley scandal as he ineffectually tries to bring the conversation back to national security.

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows that recent events including the scandal have people less willing to see Republicans continue their control in Congress, by 41% to 18%. They favored Democratic control by 34% to 23%.

Even conservative commentators seem willing to throw in the towel and declare a Democratic victory. George Will says that the Dems should go into another line of work if they can’t win control of the House in November.

It’s too soon to count the GOP down and out, but time is ticking. Karl Rove has shown his masterful brilliance in energizing the conservative base and ensuring victory for the GOP–but his hands must be very full with this election.

Much of America and the rest of the world now wait for November with baited breath to see if we have the courage to break Republican hegemony, restore our place in the community of nations, and renounce the fascist agenda that has invaded Washington in recent years.