Just what does it take for a winner to be declared the winner?

Published May 9th, 2008 in Elections. 4 Comments

ABC News reports that Obama for the first time now carries a majority of Democratic super-delegates. This all comes on top of:

–having the most pledged delegates;
–having the most popular votes;
–having the most states won;
–having the most money raised by far.

The media appears to finally be picking up on the inevitability of Obama’s nomination, with newspapers everywhere writing Clinton’s obituary.

That still won’t stop Clinton hacks and talking heads living in Fantasyland, however. They just won’t stop whining and complaining and making stupid arguments for how the mathematical impossibility of a Clinton nomination can somehow be possible.

“But we have to count Michigan and Florida,” they whine…because if we do, then Clinton might get ahead. Well, as a commentator on CNN said the other night,

If my aunt had a male appendage, she’d be my uncle!

The Clinton camp can come up with all kinds of outlandish hypotheticals–but at the end of the day they cannot escape these inexorable facts:

–All parties (Clinton, Obama, DNC) agreed on the penalties for states who broke the rules.
–Obama was not even on the ballot in Michigan as a result of those rules to which all parties agreed.
–Hundreds of thousands of people did not vote because they believed the primaries in those states were invalid, and therefore the count of those who did says nothing about what the majority of voters in these states wanted.
–There is no possible argument Clinton can make so that she gets every super-delegate in these two states, and any more reasonable split gets her no closer to the nomination.
–Even if you count the popular vote in these two states, Obama is STILL ahead because of his blow-out victory in North Carolina.

So as you can see, leaning on the Michigan/Florida argument only delays the inevitable (quite apart from the argument being bogus.)

“But..but…Clinton leads among white working class voters, and therefore is the only one to assemble a broad coalition,” the Clintonites whine. Well, since when do working class white voters constitute a broad coalition by themselves? Since when do white working class voters even turn out for the Democratic nominee in large numbers come the general election?? Clinton’s wins are predicated solely on winning rural parts of states–areas that never go Democratic in November. Every vote matters of course, including rural ones….but the point is that the Democratic nominee needs to carry substantially more than the rural working class vote in November–and Obama trounces Clinton in every other constituency except seniors 65+ and white women, often by huge lop-sided margins.

“But…but…we can still convince super-delegates that Clinton is the better choice,” the Clinton whiners argue some more. GET REAL. Do you really think that the super-delegates are going to take the nomination away from someone who is ahead in every metric, and in the process mortally insult the 25% of the party that are African Americans along with every other party member including myself with any sense of justice and fair play? Do you really think they’re inclined to destroy the party like that for the sake of your candidate’s ambition? NO.

It’s time to see the writing on the wall the way everyone else is seeing it. It is now time, Hillary, for you to step down graciously, and we thank you for your effort. If you do it right, you’ll be an elder party statesman, continue to wield much influence, and have another shot at it in the future. If you go kicking and screaming and trying to damage the nominee, then you’ll wreck your standing in the party.

Make the choice, but quickly—because I’m tired of you.

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Mildred Loving on gay marriage

Published May 8th, 2008 in Civil Liberties. 0 Comments

A couple of days ago I posted about the death of Mildred Loving, the woman involved in Loving v. Virginia, the 1967 Supreme Court case on interracial marriage. I noted there that gays should honor her passing given the importance of that case in any future argument for gay marriage.

It turns out that Loving supported same-sex marriage, a fact not disclosed in the media obituaries (hat tip to Crooks & Liars). In a letter last year, she wrote:

Loving for All

By Mildred Loving

Prepared for Delivery on June 12, 2007,
The 40th Anniversary of the Loving vs. Virginia Announcement

When my late husband, Richard, and I got married in Washington, DC in 1958, it wasn’t to make a political statement or start a fight. We were in love, and we wanted to be married.

We didn’t get married in Washington because we wanted to marry there. We did it there because the government wouldn’t allow us to marry back home in Virginia where we grew up, where we met, where we fell in love, and where we wanted to be together and build our family. You see, I am a woman of color and Richard was white, and at that time people believed it was okay to keep us from marrying because of their ideas of who should marry whom.

When Richard and I came back to our home in Virginia, happily married, we had no intention of battling over the law. We made a commitment to each other in our love and lives, and now had the legal commitment, called marriage, to match. Isn’t that what marriage is?

Not long after our wedding, we were awakened in the middle of the night in our own bedroom by deputy sheriffs and actually arrested for the “crime” of marrying the wrong kind of person. Our marriage certificate was hanging on the wall above the bed.

The state prosecuted Richard and me, and after we were found guilty, the judge declared: “”Almighty God created the races white, black, yellow, malay and red, and he placed them on separate continents. And but for the interference with his arrangement there would be no cause for such marriages. The fact that he separated the races shows that he did not intend for the races to mix.” He sentenced us to a year in prison, but offered to suspend the sentence if we left our home in Virginia for 25 years exile.

We left, and got a lawyer. Richard and I had to fight, but still were not fighting for a cause. We were fighting for our love.

Though it turned out we had to fight, happily Richard and I didn’t have to fight alone. Thanks to groups like the ACLU and the NAACP Legal Defense & Education Fund, and so many good people around the country willing to speak up, we took our case for the freedom to marry all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court. And on June 12, 1967, the Supreme Court ruled unanimously that, “The freedom to marry has long been recognized as one of the vital personal rights essential to the orderly pursuit of happiness by free men,” a “basic civil right.”

My generation was bitterly divided over something that should have been so clear and right. The majority believed that what the judge said, that it was God’s plan to keep people apart, and that government should discriminate against people in love. But I have lived long enough now to see big changes. The older generation’s fears and prejudices have given way, and today’s young people realize that if someone loves someone they have a right to marry.

Surrounded as I am now by wonderful children and grandchildren, not a day goes by that I don’t think of Richard and our love, our right to marry, and how much it meant to me to have that freedom to marry the person precious to me, even if others thought he was the “wrong kind of person” for me to marry. I believe all Americans, no matter their race, no matter their sex, no matter their sexual orientation, should have that same freedom to marry. Government has no business imposing some people’s religious beliefs over others. Especially if it denies people’s civil rights.

I am still not a political person, but I am proud that Richard’s and my name is on a court case that can help reinforce the love, the commitment, the fairness, and the family that so many people, black or white, young or old, gay or straight seek in life. I support the freedom to marry for all. That’s what Loving, and loving, are all about.

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Mildred Loving dies

Published May 6th, 2008 in Civil Liberties and Current Events. 0 Comments

Mildred Loving has died, and gay people everywhere should mourn her passing.

Why should they do so? Because when the day comes that gays and lesbians argue their case for gay marriage before the Supreme Court (as that day must someday come), Mildred Loving will speak out from the dead on their behalf.

Mildred Loving was a black woman in Virginia who fell in love with a white man. They wanted to marry, but fell afoul of Virginia’s anti-miscegenation (interracial marriage) statute. They filed a lawsuit claiming a violation of their constitutional rights that found its way to the Supreme Court in 1967. The result striking down the statute was announced in Loving v. Virginia, arguably one of the most important Supreme Court cases of all time.

Chief Justice Warren delivered the Opinion of the Court, and said the following words, profound in their implications:

Marriage is one of the “basic civil rights of man,” fundamental to our very existence and survival. Skinner v. Oklahoma, 316 U.S. 535, 541 (1942). See also Maynard v. Hill, 125 U.S. 190 (1888). To deny this fundamental freedom on so unsupportable a basis as the racial classifications embodied in these statutes, classifications so directly subversive of the principle of equality at the heart of the Fourteenth Amendment, is surely to deprive all the State’s citizens of liberty without due process of law. The Fourteenth Amendment requires that the freedom of choice to marry not be restricted by invidious racial discriminations. Under our Constitution, the freedom to marry, or not marry, a person of another race resides with the individual and cannot be infringed by the State. (emphasis added)

The Court affirmed that marriage is a fundamental right that may not be abridged by the state absent the showing of a compelling state interest (a standard that is very difficult to meet.) These words in Loving v. Virginia are the best weapon that gays and lesbians have for persuading the Supreme Court that the fundamental right of marriage should be extended not only to members of different races, but also to those wishing to enter a same-sex marriage. In both cases, the state is preventing an individual from marrying the consenting adult partner of his choice.

So as we go about our business today, let us all honor the memory of this brave woman who will be forever remembered as part of the civil rights tradition in this nation.

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Idiotic quote of the day

Published May 6th, 2008 in Energy and Elections. 0 Comments

“We’re going to go right at OPEC. They can no longer be a cartel, a monopoly that get together once every couple of months [and] decide how much oil they’re going to produce and what price they’re going to put it at. That’s not a market, that’s a monopoly.”

–Hillary Clinton in North Carolina

————————–

OK, so let me get this straight. OPEC has most of the world’s oil. Western civilization NEEDS this oil lest its economy crashes to a grinding halt. They are the masters, we are the slaves. Since when do slaves dictate terms to their masters?

What are we going to do–tell them we don’t need their oil anymore? That we’re going to get it from somewhere else? That we’re going to invade their countries and divert their pipelines? Are we going to nuke them?

Please, Hillary–tell me how we’re going to “go right at OPEC.”

The problem isn’t OPEC. The problem is us. They didn’t ask us to become dependent on their product, we did that all by ourselves. Every time we load up our huge SUV’s getting 10 miles to the gallon, live in the exurbs and commute two hours to work each way, hop in the car to go to the store that’s just around the corner, and sit in traffic choking on our own fumes, we’re causing the problem. OPEC is only too happy to feed an addiction of our own making.

So now we complain when gas prices are sky high (and going much higher)–and threaten to go after our masters? Please.

There’s only one thing we could do practically to OPEC–pressure them to tell the truth about their oil reserves. There are reasons why prices are going sky-high and OPEC is mysteriously declining to take advantage of that windfall. Some people believe that’s because they can’t–because they have reached the limits of their production. Oil reserves are akin to a state secret in places like Saudi Arabia, and we have nothing to go on except their claims of what remains on the ground. So…what if they’re lying? What if peak oil really has come and gone and they’re trying their best to hide it with excuses about why they don’t “want to” further increase production? It is criminal to run our oil-based economy on mere promises of more oil without being damn sure of what’s left.

But that’s about all we can do. Other than that, Hillary should look voters in the eye and tell them that we’re the cause of the problem, and that therefore we need to find the solution on our own. We need to tighten our energy belts while we create a solution. There are a lot of very promising technological advances going on out there right now in energy production–from algal production of biofuel, to designer bacteria that could break down switchgrass into ethanol, to the making of inexpensive solar panels.

All of these things have the potential to break our oil addiction and allow us to give the Saudis the finger once and for all, and in less time than we think. But….it requires a huge and concerted effort to change how energy is made and distributed in this country.

We need a Manhattan Project of energy–one that will incidentally create a lot of jobs while breaking our addiction. It would be money so much better spent than continuing to pour it into the black hole of Iraq (we would already be energy independent if we’d used the nearly $1 trillion for energy development instead of throwing it away in Iraq.)

If Brazil could become energy independent on sugar-based ethanol, we can do the same with our uniquely American technology and wealth. We need politicians with the backbone to give Americans the non-sugar coated truth (including the problem of diminishing oil supply worldwide) and commit us to fundamentally changing how we live and consume energy.

That’s what we need, instead of some idiotic platitudes about “going after OPEC.”

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Obama responds

Published April 15th, 2008 in Elections. 0 Comments

Obama responds forcefully to the “bitter” BS, effectively adopting the word into his vocabulary for change. While at it, he imposes his own special brand of smackdown on Hillary.

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Ron Paul cleans out Petraus’s clock

Published April 15th, 2008 in War and Terrorism. 1 Comment

Ron Paul is one of those rare Republicans that I REALLY like–primarily because I think he is exactly on target on the dire economics of the country (falling dollar, trade deficit, role of the federal reserve, true cost of the Iraq war, etc.).

Gen. Petraus recently testified before Congress on the Iraq war, and Paul took the opportunity to apply the bitchslap. He makes crystal clear just how stupid and idiotic this war has been all along.

Watch:

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Much ado over “bitter”

Published April 15th, 2008 in Elections. 1 Comment

Clinton and McCain are trying to make lots of political hay over Obama’s comments (which admittedly could have been said better) about the bitterness being felt by people in depressed areas like parts of Pennsylvania. He clearly intended to say that because people feel abandoned by their government on their economic needs, that they are bitter about that and will vote instead on religious or gun rights issues. That is the only interpretation consistent with Obama’s campaign theme, which only the most strident Clintonites and ratings-hungry TV pundits could deny.

So what do the people of Pennsylvania really think, apart from what all the talking heads would like them to think? Well, Fox news went out and asked a couple of them, and didn’t get the responses they expected. They agreed with Obama, and saw nothing wrong with what he said. Watch these videos, courtesy of Crooks & Liars:

bitter #1
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image #2
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So could we stop with the nonsense? I guess that’s too much to ask, especially of Clinton–who will end up not getting the nomination while damaging her party and its candidate in the process, for the sake of her own ambition.

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Outraged at Clinton

Published February 25th, 2008 in Elections. 2 Comments

I am so outraged at the race-baiting and religion-bashing coming out of the Clinton camp against Obama that it absolutely makes me want to puke.

A few months ago, Clinton volunteers circulated an e-mail falsely claiming that Obama was a Muslim (he is in fact a Christian)–not that there’s anything wrong with being a Muslim, but it was clearly intended to play into people’s prejudices about a minority religion. Obama has worked hard to dispel that rumor.

Today, the Drudge Report was sent a picture of Obama in traditional Somali garb as a goodwill gesture on an overseas visit a couple of years ago (something not at all unusual for politicians and ambassadors)–and Drudge attributes the picture to a source in the Clinton campaign.

When asked and after Obama protested release of the picture, the Clinton campaign erupted in righteous indignation:

Enough. If Barack Obama’s campaign wants to suggest that a photo of him wearing traditional Somali clothing is divisive, they should be ashamed. Hillary Clinton has worn the traditional clothing of countries she has visited and had those photos published widely.

This is nothing more than an obvious and transparent attempt to distract from the serious issues confronting our country today and to attempt to create the very divisions they claim to decry.

We will not be distracted.

In a perfect Clintonian trap, her campaign manager has the unmitigated gall to put out a statement like this while at the same time declining to deny the picture was sent to Drudge from her campaign. Of course it came from her campaign–and why? To cement the image of Obama as a Muslim, of course…and to play into people’s racial and religious fears. Why else would anyone submit a picture like this to Drudge?

I am so thoroughly disgusted at these tactics that if Clinton ends up being the nominee, I will stay home on Election Day. I would rather see John McCain be president than vote for that witch.

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Curtain call for Clinton

Published February 20th, 2008 in Elections. 0 Comments

With Obama winning decisively for the ninth and tenth time since Super Tuesday last night it is becoming clear that Clinton will not be getting the nomination. She should read the writing on the wall and quit the race now, for the good of the Democratic Party and the nation.

Obama is causing her coalition to crumble, repeating his Virginia performance in Wisconsin last night:

  • He won 58% of the vote to Clinton’s 43%.
  • He won white men by 30 percentage points.
  • He took 53% of white voters in an overwhelmingly white state (versus 41% on Super Tuesday).
  • He took 48% of women (versus 41% on Super Tuesday).
  • He split the non-college graduate vote with Clinton (versus 42% on Super Tuesday).
  • Clinton won white women narrowly, versus carrying them by a double digit lead in most of the previous contests.

    • Polls in the upcoming states of Texas and Ohio don’t bode well for her either; recent polls show them both in a dead head in Texas where she was heavily anticipated to win the big latino vote there, and Obama catching up to her quickly in Ohio. Given the Democratic method of awarding delegates by proportion rather than winner-take-all, Clinton would have to win these states by huge, lop-sided margins in order to remain competitive–and that’s just not going to happen.

    McCain is wasting no time targeting Obama in his speeches. Rather than putting the Clinton machine into heavy negative mode in a manner that could damage the Democratic nominee in the months ahead, she should put her ambition aside for once and do what’s best for the party.

    It’s over, girl.

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    Quote of the Day

    Published February 13th, 2008 in Elections. 0 Comments

    (Approximately)

    “It’s like, after making John McCain the nominee, Republicans are having a huge case of buyer’s remorse and have decided to stick it to him again and again by voting for Mike Huckabee.”

    –Chris Matthews on Hardball, discussing Huckabee’s strength in Virginia and his wins elsewhere.

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    Obama’s gloves come off

    Published February 13th, 2008 in Elections. 0 Comments

    I was listening to Obama’s victory speech last night, and noticed a sudden change in tenor and theme. His gloves came off–but not against Hillary who he totally ignored–but against McCain.

    He injected the following themes, to powerful effect:

    He began repeating the “Bush-McCain” mantra. He talked about the “Bush-McCain” tax cuts, about the “Bush-McCain” war in Iraq. He intends to use Bush, the most profoundly unpopular president in modern times, as a millstone around McCain’s neck by constantly associating one name with the other in people’s minds by incessant repetition.

    He also continued to hammer home that he is the candidate of change–and that McCain is just a stooge for the establishment seeking to maintain the status quo. For example, he repeated McCain’s recent and ridiculous assertion (which parroted Bush’s) that he could see us staying in Iraq for 100 years or longer–something that goes over like a fart in church right now in this country. By Obama embracing the mantle of change at this juncture, at a time when overwhelming amounts of people in polls say that is their top priority for this election, is a very good thing.

    McCain spoke immediately after Obama–and he ended up looking like a deflated souffle by comparison. This is going to be interesting!

    Obama is doing what the GOP has been so good at doing in previous elections: he is beginning to define his opponent before his opponent has had a chance to define himself.

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    Obama exit polls

    Published February 13th, 2008 in Elections. 0 Comments

    Needless to say, Obama trounced Clinton last night despite the crappy weather.

    I’m a big poll watcher, and I’ve been looking to see if there were any trends coming out of the exit polls to see if Obama could increase his support coalition beyond blacks and progressive upper-income Democrats.

    Indeed he has. I didn’t write the numbers down, but the networks were reporting last night after the Potomac primaries that for the first time,

  • Obama split the white vote with Hillary;
  • Obama took a majority of the (albeit relatively small) Latino vote;
  • Obama took a majority of those making under $50k a year;
  • Obama took a majority of men;
  • Obama took a majority of those over 60.

    • That’s the beginning of a very powerful coalition–one that I hope will extend to upcoming states.

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    1.5 hours

    Published February 12th, 2008 in Elections. 0 Comments

    I rushed out this morning, leaving my cell phone and reading materials behind, thinking today’s voting would be a quick in-and-out 5 minute affair.

    Um, no.

    What must have surely been a record-breaking line for a primary awaited me at the polls. I did not press the vote button until an hour and a half later.

    With nothing else to do, I took note of what was going on around me–who was there to vote, what people were saying.

    There were the young professionals, blackberries and iPods in hand–and those who could not afford such luxuries.

    There were young people and old–a lot of older people, in fact–a busload of them arrived from a nearby senior residential home.

    There were whites, blacks, hispanics, asians…people from all walks of life.

    “Will be in line for 1.5 hours, but last general election was 4 hour wait,” typed the woman in front of me into her Blackberry. “At this rate, next general election will be whacked.” (Yes, shame on me for reading over her shoulder.)

    Most people were cheerful, happy to be a part of something that seemed really, really important. “I’ve been in line for an hour,” yapped a woman into her phone. “But I’m not leaving–this election is important!”

    Unfortunately a few did leave, unable or unwilling to wait in line for so long. One older person collapsed, requiring a 911 call and an ambulance.

    Clearly, the electorate is in a mood. From gas prices, to the housing collapse, to the recession, to Iraq–people are sick and tired of being sick and tired, and they’re not going to take it anymore.

    I have a feeling this angst will translate primarily into Obama votes. We will see tonight–polls in Virginia close at 7 PM.

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    Clinton campaign totters

    Published February 12th, 2008 in Elections. 0 Comments

    The Clinton campaign knows it’s in trouble–setting up Ohio and Texas in March as “must win” states in the face of a string of losses on Super Tuesday and beyond.

    This is a terrible strategy, and I have doubts she’ll even make it to March. The string of defeats in state after state between now and March–Obama is expected to have blowout victories in the Potomac region today and has won every other state voting since Super Tuesday–threatens to create a snowball momentum effect that may be impossible to cancel out by the time March rolls around. It’s not just the delegate count (though many Clinton super-delegates are now wavering because of the Obama snowball)–it’s also the demoralization of troops, the drying up of fundraising, and the incessant drumbeats of impending death from the media. Obama is already bringing in twice as much money per week as Clinton, choking off her ability to respond.

    Oh well..this former Hillary supporter is off to vote for Obama in the Virginia primary. She just didn’t close the sale for me.

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    Why I’ll be voting for Obama tomorrow

    Published February 11th, 2008 in Elections. 0 Comments

    I’ll be voting for Obama in Virginia’s primary tomorrow because:

  • I believe the nation is in very serious trouble and is in desperate need of immediate change.
  • I’m sick and tired of 15 years of Bushes and Clintons rehashing the same politics, year after year.
  • Hillary, smart and capable though she is, is not Bill.
  • Hillary is a very divisive figure with no chance of uniting our badly divided country.
  • Hillary is a left-wing version of Bush in her stubbornness and willingness to do anything for power.
  • Republicans and independents thirsting for change are willing to vote for Obama.
  • I believe that Obama has what it takes to get this nation back on track, sever its oil dependency, get out of the Iraq quagmire, start dealing urgently with global warming, rejoin the community of nations, repair America’s reputation, and get back to spending within our means.
  • Obama has a clarity of vision for this nation entirely absent from Hillary’s political calculations.

    • And most of all:

  • Because he can make this grown man cry just from hearing him speak about his message of change that he believes can return this tattered nation back to greatness.

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